School of Economics and Finance · Te Kura Ohaoha Pūtea: Working Paper Series

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/21216

The School of Economics and Finance has an active research environment with very strong links to business, government and financial institutions in Wellington and wider New Zealand.

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Open Access
Price setting in a leading Swiss online supermarket
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Berka, Martin; Devereux, Michael B.; Rudolph, Thomas
We study a newly released data set of scanner prices for food products in a large Swiss online supermarket. We find that average prices change about every two months, but when we exclude temporary sales, prices are extremely sticky, changing on average once every three years. Non-sale price behavior is broadly consistent with menu cost models of sticky prices. When we focus specifically on the behavior of sale prices, however, we find that the characteristics of price adjustment seems to be substantially at odds with standard theory.
Open Access
A note resolving the debate on “The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right”
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Keef, Stephen P; Khaled, Mohammed S; Roush, Melvin L
Miller (2009a) derives a weighted average cost of capital for the special case where the cash flows to equity and the cashflows to debt are annuities. The paper attracts debate. We show that the weighted average cost of capital is redundant in a world where interest paid is not tax deductible. The required rate of return on unlevered equity will consistently and reliably estimate the net present value of any project no matter the idiocyncratic beliefs of the analyst as to the year-by-year leverage of the project, or of the firm. We recommend that the weighted average cost of capital method is discarded. Our recommendation also applies to a world where interest paid is tax deductible.
Open Access
On the dynamics of international stock market efficiency
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Khaled, Mohammed; Keef, Stephen
Purpose – to measure the temporal change in market efficiency of 17 international stock indices based on small firms.
Open Access
The stability of big-five personality traits
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Cobb-Clark, Deborah; Schurer, Stefanie
We use a large, nationally-representative sample of working-age adults to demonstrate that personality (as measured by the Big Five) is stable over a four-year period. Average personality changes are small and do not vary substantially across age groups. Intra-individual personality change is generally unrelated to experiencing adverse life events and is unlikely to be economically meaningful. Like other non-cognitive traits, personality can be modeled as a stable input into many economic decisions.
Open Access
Approximations to viability kernels for sustainable macroeconomic policies
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Krawczyk, Jacek B; Pharo, Alastair; Simpson, Mark
Maintaining an open economy within certain bounds on inflation, output gap and exchange rate can help sustainable economic development. Macroeconomics proposes monetary-policy models that describe evolution of the above quantities. We use one such model, constituted by a four-metastate one-control system, to compute viability kernel approximations that one can use to assist the central bank to establish "sustainable" policies. We propose a simple heuristic algorithm that leads to kernel approximations for this and similar models.
Open Access
Tests for weak form market efficiency in stock prices: Monte Carlo evidence
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Khaled, Mohammed S; Keef, Stephen P
Efficiency in financial markets is tested by applying variance ratio (VR)tests, but unit root tests are also used by many, sometimes in addition to the VR tests. There is a lack of clarity in the literature about the implication of these test results when they seem to disagree. We distinguish between two different types of predictability, called "structural predictability" and "error predictability". Standard unit root tests pick up structural predictability. VR tests pick up both structural and error predictability.
Open Access
On loss-avoiding lump-sum pension optimization with contingent targets
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Azzato, Jeffrey; Krawczyk, Jacek B; Sissons, Christopher
Consider a lump-sum pension fund problem, in which an agent deposits an amount with a fund manager up front and is later repaid a lump sum x(T) after time T. The fund manager may be both cautious in seeking a payoff x(T) meeting a certain target, but relaxed toward the possibility of exceeding this target. We use a computational method in stochastic optimal control (“SOCSol”) to find approximately-optimal decision rules for such “cautious-relaxed” fund managers. In particular, we examine fund optimisation problems in which the target is contingent upon market conditions such as inflation.
Open Access
Optimal Pricing of Water: Optimal Departures from the Inverse Elasticity Rule
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Sağlam, Yiğit
I consider the problem of water usage, developing a model to analyze the optimal pricing of water within a second-best economy. Consumers are assumed to have two main needs for water|drinking and non-drinking. Water is also used to produce food: The agricultural sector has a derived demand for water. As a water supplier, the local government may price discriminate across consumers and farmers. I introduce the second-best pricing scheme, derive conditions for the marginal-cost pricing and inverse-elasticity rules to apply, and analyze when it is optimal for the government to optimally deviate from these two pricing schemes.
Open Access
Can implied forward mortgage rates predict future mortgage rates - recent New Zealand experience
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Tripe, David; Xia, Bingru; Roberts, Leigh
Retail mortgage rate data for the last 13 years in New Zealand indicates that implied forward mortgage rates have only limited power to predict later spot mortgage rates. The low correlation of the forward rates and the future spot rates may in part arise from thin futures and forward markets in interest rates in New Zealand for anything longer than short term contracts. While the pattern of mortgage yield curves has varied substantially over those 13 years, the accumulated or future value of a putative deposit of one dollar with a bank offering the same term rates as the mortgage rates shows relatively little variation over this period. In the wake of the uncertainties following the global financial crisis, the relatively stable pattern of these accumulated values probably provides the best means of prediction of New Zealand mortgage yield curves, at least in the short term. The framework used for dealing with data in this paper could be applied to yield curves based on further families of interest rates; to exchange rates; to analyses of run-off data, as in cohort and longevity analysis; and for claims payments run-off in insurance, as well as in many other contexts.
Open Access
What determines European real exchange rates?
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Berka, Martin; Devereux, Michael B.
We study a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices for a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries over a 15 year period. The data set includes eurozone members both before and after the inception of the euro, floating exchange rate countries of western Europe, and emerging market economies of Eastern and Southern Europe. We find that there is a substantial and continuing deviation from PPP at all levels of aggregation, both for traded and non-traded goods, even among eurozone members. Real exchange rates exhibit two clear properties in the sample; a) they are closely tied to GDP per capita relative to the European average, at all levels of aggregation and for both cross country time series variation, b) they are highly positively correlated with cross country and time series variation in the relative price of non-traded goods. We then construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination which exhibits these two properties, calibrated to match the data. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most countries, there is a very close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate.
Open Access
The friday the thirteenth effect in stock prices: international evidence using panel data
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Keef, Stephen P; Khaled, Mohammed S
This examination of the Friday the 13th effect, in 62 international stock indices for the period 2000 to 2008, characterises the degree that the effect is influenced by: (i) the GDP of the economy and (ii) the sign of the return on the prior day. These effects are assessed by the use of an EGLS panel regression model incorporating panel corrected standard errors. The turn of the month effect on Fridays is also examined. Three important results relating to the Friday the 13th effect are observed. First, the depressed Friday the 13th effect is present when the return on the prior day is negative. Second, when the return on the prior day is positive, the depressed Friday the 13th effect is absent. Third, the depressed Friday the 13th effect is independent of the GDP of the country when the returns on control Fridays are used as the yardstick.
Open Access
Two economists’ musings on the stability of locus of control
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Cobb-Clark, Deborah; Schurer, Stefanie
Empirical studies of the role of non-cognitive skills in driving economic behavior often rely heavily on the assumption that these skills are stable over the relevant time frame. We analyze the change in a specific non-cognitive skill, i.e. locus of control, in order to directly assess the validity of this assumption. We find that short- and medium-run changes in locus of control are rather modest on average, are concentrated among the young or very old, do not appear to be related to the demographic, labor market, and health events that individuals experience, and are unlikely to be economically meaningful. Still, there is no evidence that locus of control is truly time-invariant implying that the use of lagged measures results in an errors-in-variables problem that could downward bias the estimated wage return to locus of control by as much as 50 percent. Those researchers wishing to analyze the economic consequences of non-cognitive skills should consider (i) restricting their analysis to the working-age population for whom there is little evidence of systematic change in skill levels and (ii) accounting for error in the skill measures they employ.
Open Access
The impact of private hospital insurance on utilization of hospital care in Australia: Evidence from the national health survey
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Eldridge, Damien; Koç, Cagatay; Onur, Ilke; Velamuri, Malathi
We estimate the impact of private hospital insurance on utilization of hospital care services in Australia. We employ the two-stage residual inclusion approach to address the endogeneity of private insurance. We calculate moral hazard based on a difference-of-means estimator. Our three-stage estimation framework provides evidence of selection into private hospital insurance. We find strong evidence of moral hazard when we treat hospital insurance as exogenous. After controlling for the endogeneity of hospital insurance, we find robust evidence of substitution from public to private hospital care but no evidence of ex-post moral hazard in the number of nights spent in hospital.
Open Access
Miller's (2009) WACC model: An extension
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Keef, Stephen P; Khaled, Mohammed S; Roush, Melvin L
Miller (2009a) presents an analysis of the weighted average cost of capital WACC model. The paper attracts debate which uses a variety of repayment schedules to support the arguments raised. We present an extension of Miller's (2009a) WACC model in a world where interest is tax deductible and debt principal is paid at maturity. We also present the corresponding model for the required rate of return on levered equity which is a vital input to the WACC model. Since these models are unwieldy, we explore an alternative definition of the WACC. These models provide insights into the debate on Miller's (2009a) paper.
Open Access
Modelling New Zealand electricity prices from a risk management perspective
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Moy, Caroline; Roberts, Leigh
A direct approach is taken to modelling New Zealand electricity prices, in which extreme value theory is used to augment a basic time series model. Despite its simplicity, the resulting model is suitable for answering fundamental questions of interest to risk managers, who might not find it worthwhile to apply a more sophisticated and complex approach to statistical modelling.
Open Access
Manual of VIKAASA: An application capable of computing and graphing viability kernels for simple viability problems
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Krawczyk, Jacek B.
This manual introduces and provides usage details for an application we have developed called VIKAASA, as well as the library of functions underlying it. VIKAASA runs in GNU Octave or MATLAB®, using the numerical computing and graphing capabilities of those packages to approximate, visualise and test viability kernels for viability problems involving a differential inclusion of two or more dynamic variables, a rectangular constraint set and a single scalar control.
Open Access
Optimal Tax Rules for Addictive Consumption
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Bossi, Luca; Calcott, Paul; Petkov, Vladimir
This paper studies implementation of the social optimum in a model of habit formation. We consider taxes that address inefficiencies due to negative consumption externalities, imperfect competition, and self-control problems. Our contributions are to: i) account for producers’ market power; and ii) require implementation to be robust and time consistent. Together, these features can imply significantly lower taxes. We provide a general characterization of the optimal tax rule and illustrate it with two examples.
Open Access
An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2011) Hall, Viv B; McDermott, C John
We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian States and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle. For every Australasian region, the region-specific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle, in contrast to findings for U.S. BEA regions and prior work for Australian States. The distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles is consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy, for periods when significant region-specific shocks occur.
Open Access
Can a home country benefit from FDI? A theoretical analysis
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2012) Chang, Chia-Ying
The effects of outward FDI on home country’s growth remain an open question. The growth of outward FDI has renewed this attention. By allowing for endogenous decisions of firms on both whether to conduct FDI and whether to flow capital returns back to the home country, we have found several interesting results. First, as long as the probability of conducting FDI is positive, a higher proportion of entrepreneurs may harm economic growth of the home country in short-run and long-run. The ambiguous effects of transaction costs and MRS between domestic and foreign consumption on the home country’s economic growth result from the role of financial intermediaries. If the effect via inflow probability dominates, conducting FDI in a host country with a more liberalized capital account, or with a higher capital return rate may promote the home country’s economic growth rate. This is consistent with the findings in the outward FDI in European Union since 1970s.
Open Access
Banking crises and sudden stops: What could IMF do to assist?
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2012) Chang, Chia-Ying
Along the studies suggesting IMF to promote private capital flows, this paper sheds light on the links of banking crisis and sudden stops and provides suggestions which are flexible and more specific for countries in various situations of sudden stops. In this overlapping generation framework in an open economy with international credit markets, both the default risks of firms’ loan repayment, and the possibilities of bank runs are considered. As a result, there are good and bad equilibriums, depending on whether bank runs would occur in the lifetime. In the four bad equilibrium discussed in the paper, sudden stops may be unnecessary or unavoidable coinside with the expectation of bank runs, which may or may not occur as expected. There are bad equilibriums in which sudden stops are unnecessary. These are the cases when IMF’s assistance could prevent sudden stops, and the repayment to IMF’s short-term lending facilities can be guaranteed. In the bad equilibriums when bank runs are unavoidable and when sudden stops cannot be prevented and may last for a long period of time, it could be very costly to assist countries in such equilibrium without certain policies becoming effective. Assisting several countries under this circumstances all together could jeopardize IMF’s situation. These findings are consistent with those in [Eichengreen, Guptam and Mody (2006)], and the suggestions for countries in various situations are more specific.