Analysing the Dynamics of Stakeholders in the Wellington Transmission Gully Project: a Systems Thinking and Modelling Approach to Environmental Conflict Management

Abstract

There is an increasingly common argument in the environmental management literature that much of the environmental and resource management is the management of conflict (Mitchell, 2001). One of the challenges, while managing such environmental conflicts, is to understand the dynamics of stakeholders in terms of their changing positions and interests. This thesis presents how a systems thinking and modelling study based on system dynamics, was used to understand the changing positions and interests of stakeholders in an environmental conflict. The Systems Thinking and Modelling framework (Maani and Cavana, 2000), consisting of five phases, namely, problem structuring, causal loop modelling, dynamic modeling, scenario modeling and organisational learning was applied to a New Zealand case relating to a transportation infrastructure project, called the Transmission Gully project. This project involved a proposal to build a 27 km inland highway in the Wellington region of New Zealand. In the problem structuring phase, a stakeholder analysis was conducted for the Transmission Gully project. For this purpose, a stakeholder analysis methodology, based on the literature (e.g. Freeman, 1984; Mitchell, et al., 1997) was applied. This methodology helped in structuring the problem by systematically identifying the stakeholders and their stakes. It also gave insights into the changing positions of some of the stakeholders involved with the Transmission Gully project. In the causal loop modelling phase, a group model building exercise was conducted with some key stakeholders of the Transmission Gully project. In the group model building sessions, the stakeholders generated hexagons (Hodgson, 1994; Cavana et al., 1999), based on their opinions regarding the Transmission Gully project. Similar hexagons were later formed into a cluster and few variables were identified to represent these clusters. Those variables that were related were then connected using directed arrows to generate an initial causal loop diagram. The diagram was later modified, based on system dynamics literature (e.g. Sterman, 2000) to capture the feedback loops operating in the system. On analysing the causal loop diagram, seven balancing and two reinforcing feedback loops were identified. In the dynamic modelling phase, a system dynamics simulation model was developed using the ithink software. Four sectors namely, traffic sector, interests of community stakeholders sector, interests of environmental stakeholders sector, and stakeholder positions sector were covered in this model. In the model, variables in the traffic sector like travel time and traffic volume affected stakeholder interests like carbon dioxide emissions and accidents per annum. These variables were connected to the changing positions of stakeholders in the stakeholder positions sector. These changing positions influenced whether the Transmission Gully project should go ahead or not, which further affected the traffic sector, thus completing a main feedback loop. The last two phases of the Systems Thinking and Modelling framework were combined in the model experimentation phase of this study. In this phase, policy and scenario experiments were conducted using the model, to provide insights into the system behaviour under varying conditions. Experiments were also conducted in front of some key stakeholders to get feedback about the model and to enhance the validity of the model. These experiments helped in understanding some of the dynamics related to the changing positions and interests of the stakeholders of the Transmission Gully project. To summarise, this research contributed to the fields of stakeholders, system dynamics and environmental conflict. The stakeholder analysis provided an alternative approach to problem structuring in system dynamics by systematically identifying the stakeholders, their stakes and dynamics. The group model building process gave an opportunity for the participating stakeholders to present their views about a controversial project and helped them develop a shared mental model of the environmental conflict situation. The process of developing a dynamic model helped in the better understanding of the complexities and connections between the different concerns of different stakeholders involved in an environmental conflict. Testing different policies and scenarios in this model, helped the stakeholders in learning more about the holistic dimensions of the conflict and future implications of the conflict. In conclusion, this research contributed a new application of the Systems Thinking and Modelling Methodology (Maani and Cavana, 2000) based on system dynamics, to the field of environmental conflict management involving the analysis of stakeholders and their dynamics. Key words: Stakeholders, System Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modelling, Environmental Conflict Management, Transport Infrastructure Project.