Climate Change Flow-on Effects for New Zealand: a Case Study of Samoa

Abstract

An understanding of the impacts resulting from climate change is now well developed, enabling risk assessments to be integrated into adaptation and mitigation planning. In addition to direct climate change impacts on a country, impacts can have flow-on consequences for other countries. These flow-on effects are particularly relevant for countries with strong relationships to a climate change impacted country. This study encompasses an analysis of potential climate change flow-on effects for New Zealand resulting from climate change impacts on Samoa. The analysis uses an impact-flow assessment framework, adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment linkage model, to assist in risk evaluations and policy decisions by New Zealand Government agencies. Key findings show that priorities for New Zealand Government policy makers are best focused on possible flow-on effects for New Zealand's flora and fauna, and aid and assistance relationship to Samoa. In the short term, these effects are highly relevant for policy makers because of the effects' high occurrence probability, magnitude, and level of possible governmental influence. In the long term, policy makers should focus on the effect of increasing migration from Samoa to New Zealand.