Sino-Philippine relations after the Cold War: the impact of the 'China threat' theory

Abstract

This dissertation focuses on the issue of the Spratly islands in Sino-Philippine relations. It examines the implications of the 'China Threat' theory for the bilateral relations. China's assertiveness in the South China Sea has been perceived as posing a threat to the ASEAN countries. The year 1995 served as a watershed for Sino-Philippine relations with the discovery of Chinese-built structures on Mischief Reef. The Chinese occupation of Mischief Reef has led the Philippines to become the most vociferous country among its ASEAN partners in warning about the long-term threat from China. Due to the weakness of its armed forces, the Philippines has pursued diplomatic strategy to deal with China regarding the Spratly issue. The ratification of the Visiting Forces Agreement, and the drawing of its ASEAN partners' attention to the Spratly disputes, can be seen as tools for Manila to counter the 'China threat'. On the other hand, China has used both carrots and sticks to manipulate the Spratly issue. Its good-neighbour policy and its drive for joint development have been welcomed by its neighbours. Its economic relations with the ASEAN nations have also served as a tool for China to project its political power in the South China Sea. However, China still insists on its "three nos" policy and continues to enhance its military capability. Accordingly, the manipulation of carrots and sticks has given China a valuable credit for its creeping occupation of the Spratly Islands. Furthermore, in the conflict between China and the Philippines, it seems that the US and the ASEAN are unwilling to sacrifice their relationship with China to back the Philippines' claim over the Spratlys. Both of their claims are weak under the international law and both of them will not accept any arbitration by the international court. Putting aside the issue of sovereignty and looking for confidence-building measures might have greater advantage for conflict settlement in the South China Sea. However, due to China's much stronger economic and military might than the Philippines, the most likely scenario of the Sino-Philippine confrontation regarding the Spratly Islands in the foreseeable future will be stagnation or the status quo. Under this status quo, China surely has the potential to move on to the unoccupied reefs and control the South China Sea gradually. However, the preservation of the status quo will mainly depend on the development of Sino-US relations and of China's economic and military power.