Expectation of family size: a case study

Abstract

The fertility levels of Western nations have been declining since the 1970s. However, little attention was given to the phenomena until recently when fertility levels fell and remained below replacement level. The long term effects of below replacement fertility are now being highlighted and the need to reverse the effect gaining more attention. This study investigates whether young women in New Zealand are desiring smaller families with no children, or only one child, or whether they are still desiring families with two, three, or more children and it is other factors that are contributing to them having smaller than desired families. Social change has increased the opportunities available to women particularly in the areas of tertiary education and paid employment. This has increased the need for women to make decisions regarding how many children to have and when to have them, so that they can make the most of all the desired opportunities. The choice to remain childfree has also become more acceptable. For this study fourteen interviews were conducted with women in the lower North Island. The interviews looked at the women's backgrounds and explored their future plans and expectations in regard to family size and how they would negotiate this with other goals and a future partner. The study showed that women desire larger families than the statistics show they are actually having. The women desire, on average, 2.5 children, yet the average fertility rate in New Zealand is 1.95. The women wanted to delay their childbearing until their early thirties in order to make the most of other opportunities first - namely tertiary education and careers in paid employment. This corresponds with the literature that highlights increased female participation in education and work as the main cause of delayed childbearing; the increased age of women at first birth; and below replacement fertility rates. When they did have children the women wanted to be in a financially stable position so that they could stay at home until the child was, or children were, at least one year of age. The women wanted to have their children relatively close together, and saw no obstacles to achieving their desired family size even if they did not start their family until their mid-thirties. The women were unaware of the biological impact that postponing childbearing until their thirties would have on their fertility.