Sawn Timber in New Zealand: a Market and Industry Structure Analysis

Abstract

The thesis quantifies the markets for sawn timber in New Zealand and analyses the industries servicing these markets. In essence, it erects a conceptual framework and a data base from which detailed research into the future markets for sawn timber can be developed. Chapter I, the introduction, shows the thesis as a specific contribution to the debate concerning alternative silvicultural regimes in New Zealand. A brief review then follows of the major factors influencing the production and consumption of sawn timber during the twentieth century. Chapter II examines the structural characteristics of sawn timber industries in New Zealand with emphasis on performance, scale of operations and market concentration. In Chapter III the market demand for sawn timber is analysed by way of single equation regression models and from these models short term price and income elasticities are estimated for exotic and indigenous timbers. Chapters IV and V develop, from a survey of timber invoices, modified input-output transactions tables to illustrate comprehensively the disposition and market consumption of sawn timber. Elasticities, based on the tables, are calculated to measure the impact of changes in consumption on each of the sawn timber processing sectors. In Chapter VI scenarios of future sawn timber consumption in New Zealand are projected into the twenty-first century. The trends and implications of the scenarios variables: population growth, substitution, and environmentalism are given detailed assessment. Chapter VII summarises and concludes the thesis with recommendations on the application of its findings. The main ones being: first, that a sawn timber grade model for short and long term forecasting be developed from the information presented by the thesis; and secondly, that a regular survey of timber invoices be instituted to provide current data for this model.