Labour Force Projections, 1951-1965

Abstract

The idea of this project developed some years ago in the course of my regular employment as a research officer in the Labour Department. In making demographic studies and labour force analyses it was apparent that in considering economic policy and economic development, it was essential to have estimates of future labour force. It was also seen that an important determinant of the size of labour force was the age structure of the population and that estimates of future labour force could be deduced from the age structure of total population projections. This paper is therefore an outline of a method of estimating the size of the future labour force in New Zealand. The projections have not been carried beyond 1965 but the same method as used in this analysis could conveniently be extended to further time points. A significant factor in longer term projections, however, is the fact that the estimates beyond fifteen years ahead depend on assumptions about populations not yet born. The present analysis does not depend on future birth rates. It does, however, attempt to order and interpret the effects of such factors as school attendances and payments of age benefits as they are likely to affect future labour force. The first two Parts of' the paper are devoted to a brief discussion of the labour force in relation to economic policy and to an outline of the method used in calculating the future estimates. Part III provides an historical survey of labour force movements as a background to future labour force participation trends. Parts IV and V contain the calculations of the projections of population and labour force for the various age groups while Part VI deals separately with immigration. Part VII summarises the discussion developed throughout the paper and provides a reconciliation between the estimates calculated and those published by the Labour Department since 1951. This paper is mainly an analytical study, and it is not within our scope to consider the full effects of the many economic, social and political factors affecting the size and movements of the labour force. In many cases, in fact, a measurement of the effect of such factors would be impossible. Various factors and effects have been mentioned throughout, but they have not all been correlated or analysed. We are therefore mainly concerned in this statistical analysis with the interpretation of trends to provide a method of projection. Because of the analytical nature and the desire for conciseness in the paper, the descriptive and explanatory work has been kept to a minimum.