Prediction of academic success and attrition in nursing students

Abstract

The aim of this thesis was to predict success in nursing training using firstly academic performance and secondly attrition from the training programme as indices of success. The variables used for prediction included socio-economic status, age, number of years of education, and four attributes of personality evaluated through self report and the clinical ward report on a sample of 199 general and community nursing students. It was found that such prediction of academic attainment as was afforded was on the basis of age, number of years of education and ward report. This result was statistically significant. The eight predictor variables afforded no prediction of the criterion of withdrawal from the training programme. It was concluded that performance in nursing examinations could be predicted from the three variables of ward report, education and age, but that attrition from the nursing programme could not be predicted from the scholastic, academic and personality variables studied here. The present study perhaps illustrates the limited degree of success to be expected in such enterprises when a clear specification of the task demands of the criterion situation, leading in turn to a theoretically justified selection of measures for prediction, has not been undertaken in advance. Suggestions are made for the provision of such a process, leading from task analysis to predictor-selection.