Probability: myth or reality?: an overview of the theories of probability

Abstract

We often talk as if a thing, or entity, called probability actually exists. However, there are competing theories regarding the ontological status of probability, and its close relation, chance. These theories can fairly clearly be split into the tradition viewpoints of the objective and the subjective. However upon analysis, there are numerous unwelcome implications to be found in each of these ontological viewpoints. Due to deficiencies in the foundation of probability as subjective belief I will consider main theory that advocates the existence of probability separate from a conscious agent - Quantum Theory. I shall analyse the grounds for which this primarily scientific theory postulates a realist view of probability, and argue that such a view is also not tenable, and in fact a far more difficult position to sustain that subjectivism. I will argue that although subjectivism has its faults, it is currently the only possible way in which to understand concepts such as probability for which we have no direct sensory experience, and which both do and do not consistently array themselves into physical patterns on the basis of that experience. Probability is ultimately an outcome of rational inferential thought, and if and until induction reasoning is given a solid, objective basis probability values themselves can only be argued to be subjective and primarily personal.