Regional implications of changing age structure and employment opportunity

Abstract

The 1960's will see the first wave of post-war births entering the labour force at a time when traditional markets for New Zealand's staple products seem in jeopardy. In 1951, the labour force under 21 years of age numbered only 112,200. In 1970, it will number probably about 211,000, and the ratio of males under 25 years of age to males 45 to 54 years will have changed from 2:2 in 1956 to 3:2 in 1970. Thus, the irregularities in birthrates are producing variations in the relative proportions of age groups in New Zealand's population and labour force at any given time and are adding to or reducing the internal economic pressures. Before World War 11, most demographers thought that in the absence of strong positive measures to encourage family sizes, further birthrate declines were to be expected in highly industrialised countries. Even in the immediate post-war years they were reluctant to alter their theories. Refer to, for example: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australian Government, 1944. A.H. Tocker, 1945, Page 139. N.Z. Dominion Population Commission, 1946. Report of Royal Commission on Population, 1949. As Dudley Kirk states, D. Kirk, 1960. "the demographers of all people were among the last to recognise that the post-war resurgence of natality was more than a temporary baby boom." However, there are no simple laws that will adequately specify the response of population trends to changing social and economic conditions. United Nations, 1953. But there is general agreement with the findings of the Royal Commission of a more rational control of fertility, which, as a recent survey indicated, F.Rowntree, R.M. Pierce, 1961. is increasing for a variety of reasons. This trend will assist the development of irregular cycles in the size of respective age groups, and the associated socio-economic problems. Various demographers and economists throughout the world have investigated many of these problems For a more detailed analysis of these socio-economic problems, refer to: G. Bancroft, 1952, Page 52-61. H.S. Shyrock, 1950, Pages 2-23. Spengler, J.J. 1941, Pages 157-175. but to estimate the net result of their counteracting influences, requires an extensive analysis of the demographic, economic, social and political situation of the country in question. For instance, in his evaluation of population prospects for New Zealand, G.H. Calvert G.H. Calvert, 1947, Page 8. suggested, "if New Zealand can maintain full employment in the future it should have high birth rates." Here he was acknowledging an important socio-economic shift as a major factor in his demographic variables. But the ease with which these employment policies have been achieved has been associated with the low birthrate of the early 1930's as well as the buoyant trading conditions which prevailed in the 1950's.