The Impact of intra-elite conflict on the evolution of China's politico-security foreign policy : a case study of China's foreign policy at the United Nations security council 1972-1985

Abstract

This thesis seeks to establish if and to what extent, policy differences between members of the various factions in China's politico-security elite, impinge on foreign policy development, It covers the period from 1971 to 1985. Emphasis is placed on comparing factional interests and tendencies of individuals identified as playing an important role in foreign policy formulation, and corresponding periods when specific factions dominated the elite, with each faction's foreign policy leanings. From this, propositions are made for 15 policy areas, concerning likely trends in the PRC's politico-security foreign policy. These 15 policy areas include milieu elements such as the likely degree of co-operation with other states, the importance of ideology and rhetoric, and operational concerns such as the possibility of China's use of the veto in the UNSC, level of participation in debate, and relations with the US and USSR. These propositions are then tested, using the United Nations Security Council as a case study in the development of China's foreign policy. This involves an analysis of the arguments and voting patterns of the five permanent members of the UNSC, for all resolutions and vetoed draft resolutions, over the period from December 1971 when the PRC took its seat at the UN, to December 1985. The conclusion arrived at, after analysing changes in the PRC's policies in the UNSC across the 15 areas outlined, and relating this to the factional interests in the elite, was that the direction of Chinese foreign policy development is very dependent on the specific individuals in the faction that dominates the policy making elite at any time. The mechanical input of the bureaucracy into policy making was found to be a very secondary consideration. Further, the essence and core of China's politico-security foreign policy formulation was found to be dominated by only 20 to 25 individuals.