A Statistical Analysis of Non-Maori Marriage and Fertility Rates in New Zealand, 1916 to 1963, with Special References to Possible Economic Causations of their Fluctuations

Abstract

As a result of work carried out in the New Zealand Department of Statistics doubts were developed as to the validity of some of the assumptions relating to the influence of exogeneous, as opposed to biological, factors on fertility rates and birth-rates in population statistics. Published demographic data form the basis for a great deal of political and economic planning, and the reliability of these plans will be directly related to the reliability of the assumptions on which the data is constructed. In this research the major economic and political changes in New Zealand since 1916 have been examined in terms of fertility and marriage rate changes. And the size and characteristics of these changes, both short-term and long-term, have resulted in the doubts expressed above as to the reliability of using short-term global measures (such as age-group-specific fertility rates) as a means of population forecasting. This conclusion inevitably reflects doubt on the reliability of the previously published demographic and population characteristics for New Zealand; but suggestions have been made for guides to a more rational interpretation of demographic reactions to external stimuli, and ways in which there might be obtained additional data for use in forecasting population trends.