School of Economics and Finance · Te Kura Ohaoha Pūtea: Working Paper Series: Recent submissions

  • House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand 
    Funke, Michael; Kirkby, Robert; Mihaylovski, Petar (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to New Zealand. We find that the main historical drivers ...
  • Accounting for productivity growth in a small open economy: Sector-specific technological change and relative prices of trade 
    Cao, Shutao (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    Many economies experienced a slowdown of measured productivity in the 2000s, coinciding with the commodity price boom. We use a multisector growth model for a small open economy to quantify the contribution of sector-specific ...
  • Financial constraints and productivity: Evidence from Canadian SMEs 
    Cao, Shutao; Leung, Danny (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    The degree to which financial constraints are binding is often not directly observable in commonly used business data sets (e.g., Compustat). In this paper, we measure and estimate the likelihood of a firm being constrained ...
  • Forecasting the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities 
    Guo, Biao; Han, Qian; Lin, Hai (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015)
    Neumann and Skiadopoulos (2013) document that although the implied volatilities are predictable, their economic pro ts become insignificant once the cost is accounted for. We show that the trading strategies based on the ...
  • Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence 
    Feld, Jan; Sauermann, Jan; De Grip, Andries (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    The Dunning–Kruger effect states that low performers vastly overestimate their performance while high performers more accurately assess their performance. Researchers usually interpret this empirical pattern as evidence ...
  • Joint culpability: The effects of medical marijuana laws on crime 
    Chu, Yu-Wei Luke; Townsend, Wilbur (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    Most U.S. states have passed medical marijuana laws. In this paper, we study the effects of these laws on violent and property crime. We first estimate models that control for city fixed effects and flexible city-specific ...
  • International trade data quality index 
    Shaar, Karam (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    When two countries report different values about trading with each other, the globally endemic phenomenon of trade data discrepancy arises. Substantial discrepancy in claims raises serious concerns about the quality of ...
  • Why you should use high frequency data to test the impact of exchange rate on trade 
    Shaar, Karam; Khaled, Mohammed (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    This study suggests that testing the impact of exchange rate on trade should be done using high frequency data. Using different data frequencies for identical periods and specifications between the US and Canada, we show ...
  • Transition paths for Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari models: Comparison of some solution algorithms 
    Kirkby, Robert (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2017)
    We analyse general equilibrium transition paths for Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari models: general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, and idiosyncratic but no aggregate uncertainty. We first provide ...
  • To leave or not to leave? Climate change, exit, and voice on a Pacific Island 
    Noy, Ilan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    Observers repeatedly predict that climate change will lead and is already causing massive migration with very large numbers of people forced to leave their homes in cataclysmic waves of climate refugees. Yet, most of the ...
  • The economic and fiscal burdens of disasters in the Pacific 
    Noy, Ilan; Edmonds, Christopher (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    The Pacific Islands face the highest disaster risk, in per capita terms, globally. Examples of catastrophic events in the region include the 2009 tsunami in Samoa, the 2014 floods in the Solomon Islands, and the 2015 cyclone ...
  • At the very edge of a storm: The impact of a distant cyclone on Atoll Islands 
    Taupo, Tauisi; Noy, Ilan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    The intensity of cyclones in the Pacific is predicted to increase and sea levels are predicted to rise, so a small atoll nation like Tuvalu can serve as the ‘canary in the mine’ pointing to the new risks that are emerging ...
  • A short note on discrimination and favoritism in the labor market 
    Salamanca, Nicolas; Feld, Jan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    We extend Becker’s model of discrimination by allowing firms to have discriminatory and favoring preferences simultaneously. We draw the two-preference parallel for the marginal firm, illustrate the implications for wage ...
  • Higher education expansion, economic reform and labor productivity 
    Yao, Yao (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    This paper studies the impact of higher education expansion, along with economic reform of the state sector, in the late 1990’s in China on its labor productivity. I argue that in an economy such as China, where allocation ...
  • Fertility and HIV risk in Africa 
    Yao, Yao (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    This paper examines the role of social and cultural norms regarding fertility in women’s HIV risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility, or the ability to bear children, is highly valued in most African societies, and premarital ...
  • Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: The Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu 
    Taupo, Tauisi; Cuffe, Harold; Noy, Ilan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    This paper investigates the vulnerability of households to climatic disasters in the low-lying atoll nation of Tuvalu. Small Island Developing States, particularly the atoll islands, are considered to be the most vulnerable ...
  • Sri Lankan households a decade after the Indian Ocean tsunami 
    De Alwis, Diana; Noy, Ilan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    We estimate the causal effect of the Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka on household income and consumption eight years after the event, using a quasi-experimental method. A strong association between area-wide tsunami ...
  • Modelling New Zealand milk: From the farm to the factory 
    Welsh, Melissa; Marshall, Sarah; Noy, Ilan (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    Dairy products have long been an important dietary component, particularly for young children. Because of this the dairy industry is especially sensitive to contamination scares, and dairy is of particular importance to ...
  • Economic development and intergenerational earnings mobility: Evidence from Taiwan 
    Chu, Luke Yu-Wei; Lin, Ming-Jen (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    How economic development affects intergenerational earnings elasticity is not well-documented. In this paper, we estimate intergenerational earnings elasticities between fathers and sons in two periods. In the current ...
  • Relationships in the interbank market 
    Chiu, Jonathan; Monnet, Cyril (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016)
    The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a ...

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