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Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand

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dc.contributor.author Ball, Christopher
dc.contributor.author Creedy, John
dc.contributor.author Scobie, Grant
dc.date.accessioned 2015-09-24T20:21:19Z
dc.date.accessioned 2022-07-07T02:33:34Z
dc.date.available 2015-09-24T20:21:19Z
dc.date.available 2022-07-07T02:33:34Z
dc.date.copyright 2015
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.uri https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/19356
dc.description.abstract This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes. The feedbacks include the effect on labour supply in response to changes in tax rates, changes in the country risk premium in response to higher public debt ratios, endogenous changes in the rate of productivity growth and savings. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy,can then be evaluated. Policy implications are briefly discussed. en_NZ
dc.format pdf en_NZ
dc.language.iso en_NZ
dc.publisher Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington en_NZ
dc.relation.ispartofseries Working Papers in Public Finance ; 12/2015 en_NZ
dc.subject Fiscal policy en_NZ
dc.subject Fiscal policy - New Zealand en_NZ
dc.subject Fiscal projections en_NZ
dc.subject Long-term projections en_NZ
dc.subject Economics models and forecasting en_NZ
dc.title Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand en_NZ
dc.type Text en_NZ
vuwschema.contributor.unit School of Accounting and Commercial Law en_NZ
vuwschema.subject.anzsrcfor 140212 Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory) en_NZ
vuwschema.type.vuw Working or Occasional Paper en_NZ
vuwschema.subject.anzsrcforV2 380112 Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory) en_NZ
dc.rights.rightsholder www.victoria.ac.nz/sacl/about/cpf en_NZ

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