Browsing by Author "Karim, Azreen"

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Open Access
The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2016) Karim, Azreen
We examine the short-run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on Bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), households answered a set of questions’ on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts. We identify two treatment (affected) groups by using the self-reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index. We estimate a difference-indifference (DID) model to quantify the impacts on income, expenditure, asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets. Overall, we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure. Intriguingly, the extreme poor (i.e. the bottom 15th quintile) experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self-reported treatment case.
Open Access
The (mis) allocation of public spending in a low income country: Evidence from disaster risk reduction spending in Bangladesh
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015) Karim, Azreen; Noy, Ilan
Rational allocation of limited public resources is critical to achieve the stated aims of government programmes. Here, we focus on the regional allocation of public spending for disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh as a case study to identify the rationale that guides public funding allocations. It is well understood that any government’s public spending decision-making is also affected by considerations other than need, and our objective in this paper is to identify all of the directly observable determinants’ of publicly allocated and realized spending at the local government (sub-district) level. We employ the Heckman two-stage selection model with detailed public finance and other data from 483 sub-districts (upazilas) across the country. While some of our results conform with our priors, our estimations surprisingly find that government does not respond to the sub-district’s risk exposure as a factor affecting the DRR financing mechanism. This variable is consistently counter-intuitively negative and statistically significant. The DRR regional allocations do not seem to be determined by risk and exposure, only weakly by vulnerability, nor even by more transparent political economy motivations. This is surprising, as the Bangladesh DRR program is considered a poster-child of DRR investments.
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Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2014) Karim, Azreen; Noy, Ilan
We conduct a meta-regression analysis of the existing literature on the impacts of disasters on households, focusing on the poor and on poverty measures. We find much heterogeneity in these impacts, but several general patterns, often observed in individual case-studies, emerge. Incomes are clearly impacted adversely, with the impact observed specifically in per-capita measures (so it is not due to the mortality caused by the observed disaster). Consumption is also reduced, but to a lesser extent than incomes. Importantly, poor households appear to smooth their food consumption by reducing the consumption of non-food items; the most significant items in this category are spending on housing, health, and education. This suggests potentially long-term adverse consequences as consumption of these services is often better viewed as long-term investment. We do not find consistent patterns in long-term impacts; it appears the limits of the meta-regression methodology prevent us from observing patterns in the relatively few heterogeneous research projects that examine these long-term effects. The importance of addressing risk within the context of sustainable development and poverty alleviation is clear. The impact of disasters on the poor may be increasingly worrying considering the climate variations we anticipate.
Open Access
Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2013) Noy, Ilan; Karim, Azreen
The last few years have seen an explosion of economic research on the consequences of natural disasters. This new interest is attributable first and foremost to a growing awareness of the potentially catastrophic nature of these events, but also a result of the increasing awareness that natural disasters are social and economic events: their impact is shaped as much by the structure and characteristics of the countries they hit as by their physical characteristics. Here, we survey the literature that examines the direct and indirect impact of natural disaster events specifically on the poor and their impact on the distribution of income within affected communities and societies. We also discuss some of the lacunae in this literature and outline a future agenda of investigation.