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Browsing by Author "Hall, Viv B."

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    Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles
    (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015) Hall, Viv B.; McDermott, C. John
    We compute classical real GDP business cycles and growth cycles, contrast classical recessions with ‘technical’ recessions, and assess the sensitivity of our peaks and troughs to data revisions. Using this information we find that, on average, real GDP and employment cycles have had an 89% association. Other key findings are (i) New Zealand’s average pattern of recovery has differed from that for U.S. NBER cycles, but their most recent recession and recovery paths have been unusually similar; (ii) the strength of New Zealand's business cycle recoveries has been independent of the depth, duration, or severity of the preceding recession; and (iii) investment is an important component of expansions, and in the current cycle it has been residential investment and plant and equipment investment that have been unusually slow to recover their levels at prior business cycle peaks.
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    Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective
    (Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2012) McKelvie, S.; Hall, Viv B.
    Key features of NZ business cycles were established for the period 1966q4 to 1990q1 by Kim, Buckle and Hall (1994) (KBH), but the conduct of fiscal, monetary and labour market policy and the behaviour of New Zealand's economy have changed considerably since then. Our results for the period 1987q2 to 2010q4 show a reduction in volatility and a rise in persistence for both the real economy and for price and monetary variables. Government sector, open economy, monetary and labour market results differ from those advanced in KBH. Overall, we establish a more credible set of benchmark regularities, to help underpin the construction and use of contemporary NZ macroeconomic models.