Browsing by Author "Hall, Viv"
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Item Open Access Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2019) Hall, Viv; McDermott, JohnWe examine the question of whether the rate of business insolvencies in New Zealand is related to overall macroeconomic conditions. In particular, our interest is in whether the rate of business insolvencies changed in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We find that there was a large increase in insolvencies in New Zealand following the onset of the GFC in 2008. We also find that the timing of the change did not occur uniformly over the country but occurred at different times in four key regional centres. Sharply rising relative costs were the most important macroeconomic factor influencing corporate insolvencies in New Zealand, Auckland, Waikato and Wellington, but have been immaterial in determining New Zealand’s total personal insolvencies. It is employment growth and house price inflation that have been significant in explaining total personal insolvencies.Item Restricted ECON423: Economics: Macroeconomic Modelling for the New Zealand Economy(Victoria University of Wellington, 2007) Hall, VivItem Restricted ECON423: Economics: Macroeconomic Modelling for the New Zealand Economy(Victoria University of Wellington, 2005) Hall, VivItem Open Access On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand’s stylised business cycle facts(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015) Hall, Viv; Thomson, Peter; McKelvie, StuartWe present new empirical evidence on trend robustness and end-point issues, utilising the macroeconomic data set investigated in McKelvie and Hall (2012). We consider the relative merits of non-robust Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and robust loess (LOcal regrESSion) trend filtering methods, and assess the sensitivity of HP1600 stylised facts to (i) the considerable “supply shock” deviations from trend associated with New Zealand’s 1992 power crisis, and (ii) an alternative HP100 specification and the loess approach. On end-point issues, we assess value-added from the use of seven-point triangular moving average and HP1600 filters, relative to insights from a 21-quarter uniform moving average filter.