School of Accounting and Commercial Law – Te Kura Kaute, Ture Tauhokohoko: Chair in Public Finance: Working Paper Series

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/21218

The Chair in Public Finance is located in the school of School of Accounting and Commercial Law. The aims of the Chair in Public Finance are to build up expertise in the area of public finance (broadly defined) and to promote research, debate, policy analysis and advice on public finance matters. For further information about the chair please refer to the Chair in Public Finance website.

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Open Access
Inequality in New Zealand 1983/84 to 2013/14*
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015) Ball, Christopher; Creedy, John
This paper provides an empirical analysis of annual income and expenditure inequality in New Zealand over a thirty-year period from the early 1980s. The extent of redistribution through the tax and benefit system is also explored. Household Economic Survey data are used for each year from 1983/84 to 1997/98 inclusive, 2000/01 and 2003/04 , and for each year from 2006/07. Survey calibration methods are used to examine inequality on the assumption that a range of (approximately 50) population characteristics remain constant over the period. Furthermore, decomposition methods are used to examine the separate contributions to changing inequality of population ageing, changes in labour force participation and household structure.
Open Access
Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2015) Ball, Christopher; Creedy, John; Scobie, Grant
This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes. The feedbacks include the effect on labour supply in response to changes in tax rates, changes in the country risk premium in response to higher public debt ratios, endogenous changes in the rate of productivity growth and savings. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy,can then be evaluated. Policy implications are briefly discussed.
Open Access
Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2013) Ball, Christopher; Creedy, John
This paper investigates the implications of population ageing and changes in labour force participation rates for projections of revenue obtained from personal income taxation and a consumption tax (in the form of a broad-based goods and services tax). A projection model is presented, involving changing age-income profiles over time for males and females. The model is estimated and applied to New Zealand over the period 2011-2062.
Open Access
Tax Policy with Uncertain Future Costs: Some Simple Models
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2013) Ball, Christopher; Creedy, John
This paper considers the extent to which the standard argument, that the disproportionate excess burden of taxation suggests the use of tax-smoothing in the face of future cost increases, is modified by uncertainty regarding the future. The role of uncertainty and risk aversion are examined using several highly simplified models involving a possible future contingency requiring an increase in tax-financed expenditure.
Open Access
Wage Equation Estimates for Microsimulation Modelling in New Zealand
(Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 2019) Ball, Christopher; Huseynli, Gulnara
This paper updates wage equation estimates for New Zealand using pooled annual cross-section data from 2006/07 to 2016/17. Building on previous work estimating wage equations for New Zealand we improve the wage measure and the study population definition, present results comparing the unweighted estimates to those derived using the sample weights, and present results incorporating a correction for heteroscedasticity in the selection equation.

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